Monday, May 17, 2010

South East Asia Summary # 119


At political front
• Indonesia
Indonesia’s National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri holds a paper showing terrorist suspects during a press conference at the police headquarters in Jakarta yesterday Indonesian militants captured in recent police raids were planning a series of attacks including a Mumbai-style hotel siege targeting foreigners and an assault on the president at an Independence Day ceremony, police said yesterday. The men also planned to target US President Barack Obama, who is scheduled to visit the country later this year, and plotted the attacks to instal sharia law in the world’s most populous Muslim nation, officials said
• Malaysia
Campaigning began yesterday for a Malaysian by-election in a government stronghold state whose outcome could boost Prime Minister Najib Razak’s confidence to call snap national polls as early as next year.The race for the mainly urban and ethnic Chinese parliament seat of Sibu in the timber and resource rich Borneo state of Sarawak pits a party in Najib’s National Front coalition against the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP). The uncertainties have helped dent foreign investment, with net portfolio and direct investment outflows reaching $61bn in 2008 and 2009 according to official data.
Retention improved this year, mainly into a bond market fuelled by a Malaysian interest rate hike and the use of the ringgit as a proxy for a possible Chinese yuan revaluation, although Malaysian assets have been hit by risk aversion due to investor fears that Greece may default.
Political tensions in Malaysia are also being fueled by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s ongoing trial for sodomy that resumes next week and which he says is a political conspiracy.
A contentious verdict in the trial that ends late August could anger his supporters and lead to a repeat of the street demonstrations that rocked the capital following Anwar’s sacking as Deputy Prime Minister in 1998, political analysts have said
• Thailand
Two Thai policeman were killed and 13 people wounded in gun and grenade attacks overnight, threatening efforts to forge a deal on ending nearly two months of anti-government protests that have undermined the economy. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has put forward a plan to end the rallies that have crippled Bangkok and scared off tourists, but it remains in limbo as talks drag on over the details, including a proposed early election in mid-November The stand-off has paralysed the commercial heart of the capital for nearly two months, but its roots stretch back to the prime ministership of Thaksin Shinawatra — a populist tycoon ousted in a 2006 military coup — and the deep social divisions it exposed between Thailand’s traditional elite and rural masses.
Anti-government protesters said Monday they will accept Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s national reconciliation plan, including an early general election Nov 14. But, they added, they will continue their sit-in protest in Bangkok’s prime shopping and commercial streets until the government allows their satellite television to go back on the air and until key government leaders face charges related to bloody April 10 clashes in which 25 people were killed and more than 800 others wounded.
The economy and the people's health have improved significantly, but most Thais are seriously disturbed by politics, Thailand's 2009 Human Development report says.
According to the report, poverty and disease have decreased significantly, but people are still at risk from crime, road accidents, food safety, pollution, human trafficking, drugs, domestic and sexual violence, the destruction of natural resources, and political disorder.
While major diseases such as HIV/Aids have been on the decline, people are suffering from stress and the political rift was giving rise to conflict and polarisation in society.
Human security in Thailand overall was deemed more than moderately secure, according to the report.
Some of the issues facing Thailand in coming years include addressing the needs of small farmers, non-citizens, social inequality, issues surrounding the ageing population, climate change, and water supply management, the report said.
Southeast Asian leaders have raised concerns about regional stability in the wake of Thailand's political crisis, in what observers say is the latest sign the ASEAN regional bloc is slowly easing its policy of non-interference in the affairs of member states.

• Philippine
More than 85,000 candidates are contesting about 17,000 positions.Front-runner for president is Noynoy Aquino, the son of Benigno "Ninoy" and Corazon "Cory" Aquino.His father was shot and killed on his return to the Philippines from political exile in 1983.Cory Aquino became president after a "people power" revolution in 1986 against Ferdinand Marcos.Noynoy, 50, has served as a legislator for the past 12 years. His mother Cory died last year.The other main candidate is Senator Manny Villar, 60, one of the richest men in the Philippines. However, his polling figures have slipped in recent weeks.Another presidential hopeful is Joseph Estrada, 73: the former film star has been president before, but was ousted in a popular revolt after two years in power.More than 85,000 candidates are contesting about 17,000 positions.
Muslims, on the other hand, are around eight million. Muslims of this country have been divided and conquered by their rulers from Manila. The MNLF and the MILF are independent of each other but fighting for the same constituency. The MNLF leadership has been fragmented by the denizens of the Palace, made palatable to the co-opted with the offer of political positions. The Muslim politicians are divided, following whoever controls the release of funds (over the last 9 years, that was Gloria Macapagal Arroyo). Civil society leaders rail against our political marginalization but have not learned the lessons offered by the late Ka Erdie Manalo of INC and Pastor Quiboloy.
The Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy together with the members of the National Ulama Conference of the Philippines and representatives of Muslim civil society gave the Bangsamoro/Muslim Political Agenda to the presidential candidates and their parties. We might as well have burned the paper and sent smoke signals for all the attention we received.
Smartmatic, the company in charge of the automation electoral project and services for the Philippines General Elections, successfully deployed its electoral solution in the Asian country. Of a total of 76,340 voting machines used, only 350 (0.50%) failed as they broke during transportation, which is a number way below of the expected 2% for these cases. Most of the machines that had any problems were replaced right away.
One hour and a half after closing the polls, 40% of results had been transmitted and tallied. It is expected that in less than 24 hours there will be an announcement regarding the winner of the Presidential contest. In the previous General Elections celebrated on May 2004 this took 40 days, causing severe tensions in the country. Smartmatic is a multinational company that designs and deploys technological solutions aimed at helping governments fulfill, in the most efficient way, their commitments with their citizens. It is one of the largest cutting-edge technology suppliers, with a wide and proven experience in the United States, Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Philippines' president-apparent Benigno Aquino III refused Friday to take an oath of office before the new chief justice, alleging impropriety in the appointment by the outgoing president in the dying days of her term.The move would be a symbolic first blow against the scandal-tainted President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo if Aquino takes office.The son of Philippine democracy icons questioned Arroyo's appointment on Wednesday of Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona, who was her chief of staff and spokesman. Aquino cited constitutional prohibitions on appointments two months before the end of a president's term, but a majority of Supreme Court judges ruled in March the two-month ban does not apply to the position of chief justice
• Cambodia
The Cambodian government signed the treaty with China on February 25, 2010 in Phnom Penh.The treaty was based on the norm of the 1963 Vienna Convention to which Cambodia is a party since 2005.Hor Namhong, deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs told the parliamentarians that the treaty was significant to promote further cooperation between Cambodia and China.
The treaty allows consular officials to make direct contacts with their own citizens who run businesses or work in the country where consular office is located
At economic Front
• Indonesia
Indonesia's economic growth accelerated in the first quarter to its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2008, as households continued to spend amid benign inflation and companies invested more on rising confidence in the economy, the government said Monday.The official statistics agency said Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.7% year-to-year in the quarter ended March, accelerating from 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009. Meanwhile, nonseasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter economic growth was 1.9%, a reversal of the previous quarter's 2.4% contraction.The data showed that the domestic economy's recovery remains on track, even if growth came in slightly slower than expected. The statistics agency also said its quarterly surveys showed that companies and consumers are confident the economy will continue to improve in the second quarter of the year. The agency added that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% as of February from 7.9% in August, and 8.1% in February 2008
Indonesia welcomes the Group of 20 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation but hopes to see the world’s largest economies address other important global issues such as climate change and food and energy security at the summit in Seoul later this year, Jakarta’s top envoy to South Korea said in a recent interview.
“Indonesia is very rich in natural as well as human resources,” he said. “Korea has capital, skills, management, finance, funding and technology. We can complement each other,” he said. “This is a very important point that makes the prospect of our relationship extremely bright.”
Indonesia’s major exports to Korea include energy resources such as coal, oil and gas. Agricultural and textile products are also main export items to Korea, according to the ambassador.
In the 2010 budget, government of Indonesia has allocated Rp 9 billion for modernization of old textile and leather machineries in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), informed a government official.
Textile and leather products manufactured in SMEs fail to strongly compete in the market due to their aging machineries, which are the biggest obstacle in the development of these SMEs. The textile and leather industries are supposed to modernise machineries of about 80 to 100 factories per year, under a six-year restructuring program that was implemented in 2009 for the first time. This program was to help modernize at least 50 percent of the plants by the year 2014. The government, under this six-year program, will offer 25 percent funds to the industries to import new machineries and 30 percent funds will be offered for acquiring new machines from the local machine manufacturers, in the price range of Rp 40 million to 2 billion each.
The Indo-Indonesian trade has expanded by over 20 per cent in the first two months of 2010.India is set to strengthen its ties with the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) as well as Indonesia.According to the Indian envoy in Indonesia, Mr Biren Nanda, the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Asean on investment and services may be through within a year.The treaty is expected to boost Indian investments in the natural resource-rich Indonesia substantially. Acting chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Adi Putra Taher told the Post that the government still had to strengthen domestic industries to increase their competitiveness before implementing any FTAs. "We are not ready to implement any FTAs because there are still many existing problems such as a lack of infrastructure and electricity supply," he said.

• Malaysia
Governments worldwide that are reeling from the aftershocks of the global financial crisis should admit that their present monetary, financial and banking systems are faulty and open to abuse and manipulation and must therefore be reviewed and modified or abolished to prevent abuse, former Prime Minister of Malaysia Dr Mahathir Mohammad said here in a lecture.
Speaking at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), Mahathir said: "The way forward is to restore the role of governments in overseeing and regulating the markets." "The financial market must seek government approval before introducing new get rich quick schemes and products," said Mahathir. "We have to accept that restrictions of financial markets will slow down economic growth as represented by GDP [gross domestic product] and per capita income, but the lower growth would represent real wealth of a country."
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is expected to witness the signing of six business agreements worth US$1bil during his three-day official visit to Cambodia beginning Sunday.
The five business agreements will be between the private sectors of both countries while another agreement will be signed between a Malaysian company and a Cambodian government agency
Malaysia's economy probably grew the most since 2000 in the first quarter, an acceleration that may convince the central bank to raise interest rates even in the aftermath of Europe's debt crisis, surveys of economists showed. The economy grew 9.4 per cent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, the median forecast of economists showed before the central bank's report at 6 pm today.
Asian central banks are pulling back monetary stimulus as the region's growth outpaces the rest of the world.
The impact of Europe's sovereign debt crisis, which led the euro area to prepare an almost US$1 trillion bailout package this week, may be muted on Malaysia, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said this week and recommended buying the ringgit.
'Malaysia, and the rest of Asia too, is well-positioned to avoid large and sustained contagion from what looks set to be a prolonged adjustment in Europe,' said Kevin Grice, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd in London.
Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund plans to invest $5bn on projects including energy and real estate in Malaysia, according to a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed yesterday by both countries.
A joint committee will be set up between the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), a Kuala Lumpur-based wealth fund, to explore potential ventures, a joint statement said.
Malaysia is placing “high priority” on signing a comprehensive economic pact with India before the end of this yearUnder Malaysia's New Economic Model now being blueprinted, merit would be emphasised to make the country's economy more competitive and resilient at home and abroad. However, “affirmative action is still our policy,” with the focus being shifted to help those belonging to “”the bottom 40-per-cent of the income bracket, irrespective of race,” said Mr. Mustapa.
The original affirmative policy, launched in 1971, was designed to favour the country's Malay-Muslim majority so as to redress its historical economic backwardness. Under the new policy now, affirmative action would apply to those in need among not only the Malays but also the minority groups of ethnic Chinese and the people of Indian origin
• Thailand
Sino-Thai economic links have helped shore up Thailand's export-oriented economy, Thailand's finance minister stressed Wednesday, highlighting the importance of a strategic partnership."China's sustained economic growth facilitates Thailand's economic recovery. The Thai government and economy have maintained normal operations, despite the current internal situation," H.E. Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday as he wrapped up a three-day trip to China, - his first official visit.
  In an unexpected move last month, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) purchased a 97.24 percent stake in the Bangkok-based ACL Bank, Thailand's largest lender by asset, which operates 17 branches across the country.
Consumer confidence in Thailand suffered a record drop in April, hit by political turmoil as weeks of protests turned deadly, data showed yesterday, pointing to trouble ahead for a nascent economic rebound.The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said its consumer confidence index fell by a record 2.6 points to 67.2 in April, the lowest since July 2009. It is down sharply from a 21-month high of 71.9 struck in January.
Thailand's finance minister offered a slightly improved outlook for 2010 GDP on Wednesday - projecting growth of 4.5 to 5 percent -- but noted the ongoing political crisis could shave 0.3 percentage point off that target.During a visit to Beijing to meet Chinese officials, Korn Chatikavanij also said he expected first quarter GDP to have grown by 9 percent from a year ago.Thailand's gross domestic product is about $260 billion, making it southeast Asia's second-largest economy.
• Philippine
With a new administration promising to wage war against endemic corruption, more Filipinos are optimistic that economic growth will trickle down to their personal lives, according to Social Weather Stations (SWS).The exit poll conducted by SWS and sponsored by TV 5 shows that 49% of Filipinos are optimistic that their quality of life will be better in the coming 12 months. Meanwhile, only 2% expect life to be worse.The poll targeted a national sample of over 35,000 voters from 731 out of 802 voting centers. Unlike the previous SWS polls in 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004 -- which were conducted in the homes of the respondents -- this year's exit poll was conducted 50 meters away from polling centers.As for economic outlook this year, 52% of survey respondents are optimistic, while 2% are pessimistic.The Philippines conducted its first ever automated elections on Monday, with about 75% of the country's more than 50 million eligible voters casting their ballots.
• Vietnam
Vietnam will invest around US$8.6 billion in island infrastructure to boost national defense and economic development on its remote ocean outposts. Nearly 60 percent of the program’s total cost – VND162.5 trillion ($8.6 billion) – will be paid by the government with the rest sourced from the private sector and foreign official development assistance, according to a government decision released recently. The program targets an annual economic growth on Vietnam’s islands of 14-15 percent, increasing the island economies’ share of the country’s total economic growth from the current 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent by 2020.
Major ports will be constructed for ships of around 1,000 tons on many islands while the ports on Con Dao and Phu Quoc islands will be expanded.
Vietnam’s economy may expand 7.2 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2007 and more than the government’s target, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. Gross domestic product in the Southeast Asian nation gained 5.8 percent in the first quarter. The government is targeting growth of 6.5 percent in 2010, which compares with a decade-low 5.3 percent in 2009.Vietnam’s first-quarter growth rate has been “significantly weaker” than other quarters over the past decade, with the historical tendency for the economy’s pace of expansion to accelerate through the year, Wellian Wiranto, a Singapore-based economist at HSBC, said in a research note received Monday.
• Cambodia
Cambodia's foreign minister says China will donate equipment to the country's military. The announcement comes after the United States cancelled a shipment of military vehicles when Phnom Penh expelled Uighur asylum-seekers at China's request.Twenty people were expelled last December.Foreign Minister Hor Namhong has announced that China will donate more than 250 trucks and 50,000 uniforms to the Cambodian military.At the time of the expulsions, Washington said Cambodia had failed in its international obligations by sending the Uighurs back to an uncertain fate in China, and it threatened punishment. Within days of the expulsions, China had awarded Cambodia more than $1 billion in economic aid, although both countries denied any link to the Uighur expulsions.China is a key investor in Cambodia, particularly in infrastructure. Acceptance of China's latest donation is a less than subtle message that Cambodia is prepared to play off one big power against another. Minister Hor Namhong says China's President Hu Jintao has promised more military assistance in the future.
• Singapore
Singapore will share its experience in corporate governance and developing infrastructure projects through the public-private partnership model with Indonesia. This will be done through a newly set-up state-owned company under Indonesia's Finance Ministry. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed on Tuesday between the World Bank, the Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund and the Singapore Cooperation Enterprise to formalise the cooperation.
At Social Front
• Malaysia
The young man who claims opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim sodomized him acknowledged in court Monday that he had met with Malaysia's prime minister four days before making a police complaint against Anwar.The defense hopes that Saiful Bukhari Azlan's testimony under cross-examination will bolster its contention that the sodomy trial against Anwar is a political conspiracy masterminded by Prime Minister Najib Razak and his wife. Najib denies Anwar's claim that he is a victim of a government conspiracy to undermine the opposition alliance, which hopes to win power in national elections scheduled to be held by 2013.
Anwar's lawyers point to some contradictions in Saiful's testimony. One medical report says Saiful initially told a doctor a plastic object had been inserted in his anus.
• Thailand
Thai authorities plan to cut water, electricity and food supplies to thousands of protesters occupying Bangkok's main shopping district for nearly six weeks and said they might resort to force if they fail to disperse.The threats follow the unravelling of a peace plan proposed last week by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to end a political crisis that has killed 29 people, paralysed parts of Bangkok and slowed growth in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy.Leaders of the mostly rural and urban poor protesters remained defiant on Wednesday, refusing to leave their 3 sq km (1.2 sq mile) encampment in Bangkok's main shopping district and challenging the government from behind medieval-like walls built of tires, sharpened bamboo staves and large trucks.
• Philippine
Nine people were killed in outbreaks of violence as millions of Filipinos went to the polls in nationwide elections yesterday, local authorities said. Yesterday’s killings brought to at least 40 the number of people killed in political violence over the past four months, according to police statistics. This does not include 57 people massacred in Maguindanao in November, allegedly by a powerful Muslim clan to stop a rival from running for provincial governor

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